Estimates of World Grain Production in 2013

By CnAgri2013-12-18 09:24:06 Print

According to BOABC’ monitoring, global grain price index continued declining significantly in Nov., mainly influenced by global production increase and USD appreciation.
　　
In Nov., global grain price index was USD361/MT, up 0.39% MOM but down 13.83% YOY deducting value change of USD. 5 consecutive months’ decline indicated that both grain planting acreages and productions increased greatly all over the world, but would influence grain production next year.
　　
Prices for different grain varieties:In Nov., average prices for wheat, corn and rice were USD318/MT, USD267/MT and USD593/MT, down 0.26%, up 0.55% and up 0.76% respectively MOM and down 10.41%, 23.09% and 7.44% respectively YOY.
　　
Grain futures price index was USD234/MT in Nov., down 0.99% MOM and down 24.06% YOY, in which, wheat futures price was USD239/MT, up 4.35% MOM but down 24.24% YOY. Wheat price increase in China effectively restrained international wheat price from further declining; corn futures price was USDD166/MT, down 2.38% MOM and down 42.72% YOY, influenced by global production increase and demand decline.
　　
As for fossil oil, in Nov., New York crude oil price was USD689.6/MT, down 4.80%  MON and 8.30% YOY. Price increase of crude oil shall raise grain production cost and drive grain consumption, lowering down stocks.
　　
For price ratio between different grain varieties, in Oct., price ratio between wheat and grain was 0.88 and the increase shall suppress growth of wheat trade and consumption. Price ratio between corn and grain was 0.74 and that between rice and grain was 1.64.
　　
Global grain safety index:

The harvested grain acreage and grain production are estimated to be 788 million hectares and 2.92 billion MT this year, 2.02% and 8.24% more than last year respectively. Production increase is the key factor holding down price, especially high production in CIS countries.
　　
For different varieties, wheat acreage and production are about 220 million hectares and 701 million MT, down 1.30% but up 8.25% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Corn acreage and production are 181 million hectares and 1020.0 million MT, up 13.88% and 2.68% respectively on the year-on-year basis. USA Corn acreage and production increase lead to global increase.
　　
Paddy acreage and production are 160 million hectares and 733 million MT, down 0.07% but up 1.38% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Converting to rice, the production was 498 million MT.

Year-end grain inventory and safety index are predicted to be 908 million MT and 35.4% respectively in the world in 2013/2014. Annual price index is predicted to decline to 227. Specifically, wheat, corn and rice inventories are predicted to be 199 million MT, 325million MT and 175 million MT respectively, suggesting a safety index of 28.6%, 34.0% and 35.2% respectively.



From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”