China Feed Production and Corn Balance Sheet in Dec. 2013

By CnAgri2014-02-20 09:09:06 Print According to Statistics Bureau, feed production in Dec. decreased on year-on-year basis but increased MOM.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, compound feed production by medium and large mills registered 13.139 million MT in Dec. and 138.737 million MT in Jan. ~ Dec., up 5.94% and 9.21% respectively on the year-on-year basis; concentrated feed production by medium and large mills registered 5.3915 million MT in Dec. and 59.393 million MT in Jan. ~ Dec., up 4.61% and 7.56% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
Besides, feed production of key enterprises of Feed Industry Association registered 2.8092 million MT in Dec., including compound feed, 2.44 million MT, concentrated feed, 269,000MT and additive pre-mix feed, 99,000MT. Outbreaks of avian flu declined feed production in Dec.  

Feed production totaled 19.209 million MT in Dec. and 207.6 million MT in Jan.-Dec., down 6.24% and 4.67% respectively YOY. Feed enterprises have not recovered from influences of avian flu in Nov. and its outbreaks in Dec. hit China feed industry again, especially large poultry breeding enterprises in the south and east.   

According to data from Feed Industry Association, feed production by 160 key enterprises totaled 34.8879 million MT in 2013, down 10.65% from 2012. Production of compound feed, concentrated feed and additive pre-mix feed registered 31.234 million MT, 2.66 million MT and 0.9939 million MT respectively, down 11.16%, 9.86% and up 7.01% respectively on year-on-year basis.

For enterprises with annual production of over 100,000MT, 10-100 thousand MT and below 10 thousand MT, feed production totaled 16 million MT, 15.5 million MT and 3.45 million MT respectively, down 15.09%, 4.02% and 16.2% respectively on year-on-year basis.

For different species, production of pig feed and meat poultry feed saw obvious decline.

For details, feed production totaled 12.3 million MT, down 10.16% from 2012, including 5.16 million MT egg poultry feed, 11.1 million MT meat poultry feed, 4.75 million MT aquatic feed, 1.2788 million MT ruminant feed and other feed 284,100MT, down 1.76%, 16.08%, 8.68%, 1.81% and 20% respectively on year-on-year basis.
Converted to complete feed, the production was 28.543 million MT and 17.126 million MT energy feed was consumed in Dec.. Due to continuous increase of wheat/corn price ratio, corn consumption for feed increased. Corn consumption for feed totaled 12.85 million MT in whole society and 8.15 million MT in medium and large sized compound feed enterprises. In 2013, corn consumption for feed totaled 131.5 million MT and that by large sized enterprises was 90.844 million MT.

Taking 25 days’ operation as full capacity, compound feed mills’ operating rate was 54.88% in Dec.. Compound feed mills’ capacity of large sized enterprises was 335.9 million MT in 2012.

Demand for other energy feed was 4.282 million MT and for protein and other staple raw materials was 10.7 million MT in Dec.. In total, demand for other energy feed was 50.945 million MT and for protein and other staple raw materials was 111 million MT in 2013.

For supply of other raw materials, deducting 810,000MT imports, domestic refined veg oil production was 6.472 million MT in Dec. 2013 and 61.972 million MT in 2013, up 13.46% and 19.67% respectively on year-on-year basis; domestic crushing quantity of veg oil was 5.66 million MT, up 24% on year-on-year basis and up 8% MOM. Taking repetitive statistics into consideration, oilseed meal production is predicted to be 12.717 million MT and its production/demand ratio is 1.19. Adequate supply of oil meal shall lower down its price in short terms. 

Supply of non-corn raw materials totaled 20.99 million MT in Dec. 2013, including 18.69 million MT grain and oil processing by-products, for different varieties, including 2.572 million MT wheat middling and bran, 1.806 million MT rice husk and broken rice, 1.551 million MT corn bran and protein powder and 41,000 MT beer dregs. Direct consumption of  wheat, paddy, flour and rice registered 2.298 million MT, consisting 330,000MT barley, 80,000MT rice, 506,000MT flour and 625,000MT rice.

In 2013, supply of grain and oil processing by-products totaled 182 million MT, including 26.91 million MT bran, 18.256 million MT rice by-products, 18.6 million MT corn by-products, 708,000MT beer by-products and 118 million MT oil meals. Besides, production of wheat and rice products totaled 25.24 million MT, consuming wheat 5.167 million MT, rice, 9.997 million MT, flour, 3.648 million MT and rice, 6.428 million MT. 

Corn consumption for various uses was 18.709 million MT in Dec. 2013. Corn production accumulated to 214 million MT in 2013. Corn imports were 800,000MT in Dec. 2013. Corn inventory was 197.9 million MT at the end of Dec., suggesting a monthly stock/consumption index of 10.58.

Corn inventory in Dec. consisted of 36.23 million MT state reserve, 11.5 million MT corn-processing factories’ stock, 10.61 million MT feed mills’ stock, 6.302 million MT traders’ stock and 133 million MT farmers’ stock. Corn purchased in major production areas registered 47.59 million MT, increasing 13.9 million MT from the same period last year, of which, 11.9 million MT was purchased by state-owned enterprises and 35.69 million MT by private enterprises. The purchase increase was driven by corn harvest and national policy supports.

Corn price was RMB2,373/MT in Nov., down 0.67% on the year-on-year basis and 1.13% MOM. Current corn price is higher than protective procurement price, so it is likely to go down.

Planted corn acreage and corn production are 36.42 million hectares and 213.6 million MT in 2013, up 3.97% and 3.89% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Corn unit yield declined slightly to 5868Kg/hectare, influenced by drought in SC and waterlogging in NC. Due to wide price gap between home and abroad, corn imports are predicted to be 3 million MT this crop year. Corn industry consumption was 51.788 million MT and total consumption, 188.7 million MT in 2012/13 with safety index of 39.29%; corn industry consumption is predicted to be54.65 million MT and total consumption 196.7 million MT in 2013/14. The year-end inventory is 93.957 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 47.76%. Corn annual price declines, forecasting at RMB2344/MT.



From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”