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It’s predicted that hog prices will rise slightly with average price of about 15yuan/kg

China Agriculture Report By CnAgri2017-07-03 11:14:58China Agriculture Report Print

In the first half of 2017, pork supply was sufficient, and hog prices went down continuously. In middle June, hog prices saw slight growth, but continuous growth in prices lacks driving force. It’s predicted that average hog prices will keep at yuan/kg in the second half of 2017.

In May, the average weight of hogs for slaughtering was 117kg, decreasing by 1.32kg from the previous month; scale breeding enterprises also faced this situation, average weight of hogs for slaughtering of Wens and Muyuan respectively was 120.31kg and 101.36kg, respectively decreasing by 1.29kg and 3kg over the previous month, which means that big hogs for slaughtering are decreasing.

As big hogs and standard hogs in the market are sold out, hog slaughter will decrease seasonably and the average weight for selling also will decline. Considering that June and July are traditional slack season of pork consumption, we estimate that hog prices will fluctuate around 13.5-14yuan/kg, making small profits. From August to October, hog supply may fall short of demand, hog prices are hopeful to rebound in Q3 and Q4 and reach 15-15.5yuan/kg.

We estimate that the overall supply of domestic pork will increase and annual hog prices will keep at 14.5-15.0yuan/kg. Suggestion: under the background of capacity rising, overall hog prices will decline in the second half of 2017 and are hard to increase to16-17yuan/kg at the beginning of this year, so pig farms should reasonably raise pigs to avoid slaughter delay and pork supply increase as well as imbalance between supply and demand.


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