The Drought in the Northeast is Not Enough to Change the Situation of an Oversupply

By CnAgri2017-07-03 11:23:54 Print

Since April 2017, less rain and dry soil in the northeast especially in most Liaoning and northeast Inner Mongolia have greatly influenced the rate of corn seedling emergence, bringing a lagging effect in corn growth, so some seriously-drought areas were forced to grow other crops. The factor of drought widened the decline in corn planting areas in the northeast, and corn planting areas in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia would decrease by more 6%.

However, even if drought occurred during the sowing and seedling-emergence periods of corn, the influence on corn output is uncertain. If there is more rainfall during the period of corn growth, corn possibly will have high yield. At present, drought concentrates on Liaoning and northeast Inner Mongolia. Judging from previous experience, even if the drought cuts down the output, the average yield usually decreases by 10%-20%.

At the average yield of corn in the last five years, 2017 corn output would reach 208 million MT, nearly 12 million MT less than 2016. However, even if corn consumption in 2017/18 increases to 220 million MT, only 12 million MT higher than corn output, which can’t change the situation of an oversupply in the domestic.

Table 1, China’s Corn Production and Yield
Unit: 000HA, KG/HA, 000MT

Data source: BOABC Database, Date of Forecast: June 2017.