Estimates of Grain Production in 2013

By CnAgri2013-04-27 11:07:01 Print China’s grain price index went up in 2012/2013 (May ~ April). The price index was RMB2,526/MT in March, parallel to the month before but up 3.15% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, the index rose 2.69% over the month before and 7.58% over the same period of last year. The average grain price index between May of 2012 and March of 2013 was RMB2,508/MT, up 5.64% on the year-on-year basis, conducive to grain production.
 
Specifically, wheat price was RMB2,395/MT in March, up 0.37% over the month before and up 12.37% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, wheat price rose 3.07% over the month before and 16.8% on the year-on-year basis. Wheat price averaged RMB2,249/MT between March of 2012 and March of 2013, up 7.74% on the year-on-year basis.
 
Paddy price averaged RMB2,710/MT in March, down 0.01% from the month before but up 0.06% on the year-on-year basis. In the 2012/2013 crop year (June ~ May), rice price is estimated to be RMB2,733/MT, up 11.62% on the year-on-year basis. Rice price was stable after October of 2012, unable to give farmers incentives in paddy production in 2013.
 
Corn price was RMB2,402/MT in March, down 0.27% from the month before but up 1.7% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, corn price rose 2.43% over the month before and 6.19% over the same period of last year. Corn price averaged RMB2,421/MT in the 2012/2013 crop year (August ~ July), corn price is estimated to be RMB2,421/MT, up 1.99% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, corn price may go up 6.09% in the crop year. Considering the small degree of corn price growth, corn acreage is likely to drop this year.
 
Barley price was RMB1,976/MT in March, up 0.99% over the month before but down 13.5% on the year-on-year basis. Adjusting for price, barley price rose 3.69% over the month before but slipped 9.08% on the year-on-year basis. IN the 2012/2013 crop year (May ~ April), barley price averaged about RMB1,994/MT, down 1.44% on the year-on-year basis, adjusting for price. The barley price decline since last August may affect barley acreage this year.
 
China’s planted grain acreage is likely to be affected by adverse weather this year. The Northeast has been dominated by low temperature and frequent rains recently, which may affect corn and Japanic paddy planting. Spring wheat sowing and winter wheat growth are hampered by low temperature and drought in the Northwest. BOABC predicts that planted grain acreage, grain yield and grain production may be 110.845 million hectares, 5,362kg/hectare and 594 million MT in 2013, down 0.38%, up 1.19% and up 0.81% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Winter wheat acreage, production and yield are predicted to be 22.72 million hectares, 114.1 million MT and 5,024kg/hectare this year, up 0.33%, 0.49% and 0.15% respectively over last year. Though wheat seedlings are suffering from drought in the Northwest, wheat seedlings are in good shape in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River. The transfer of cotton production to western provinces may lead to a wheat acreage growth.
 
Spring wheat acreage, yield and production are predicted to be 1.659 million hectares, 4,052kg/hectare and 6.444 million MT this year, down 4.93%, up 2.83% but down 2.24% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Corn acreage is predicted to be 35.614 million hectares this year, including 23.628 million hectares of spring corn and 11.987 million hectares summer corn, up 1.02%, 0.75% and 1.56% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Corn production is predicted to be 216 million MT this year, including 150 million MT spring corn and 60 million MT summer corn, up 4.06%, 4.53% and 3.09% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Paddy acreage, yield and production are predicted to be 30.283 million hectares, 6,783kg/hectare and 205.4 million MT respectively this year, up 0.33%, 0.83% and 1.15% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Early paddy acreage and production are predicted to be 5.808 million hectares and 33.767 million MT this year, down 0.27% but up 1.08% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Semilate paddy acreage and production are predicted to be 18.18 million hectares and 134 million MT, down 0.18% but up 1.01% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Late paddy acreage and production are predicted to be 6.296 million hectares and 37.325 million MT, up 0.92% and 0.94% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
In terms of paddy variety, Japan acreage and production are predicted to be 9.99 million hectares and 69.969 million MT, up 1.37% and 1.4% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Indica acreage and production are predicted to be 20.293 million hectares and 135 million MT, down 0.18% but up 1.03% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Barley acreage, yield and production are predicted to be 627,400 hectares, 3,486kg/hectare and 2.037 million MT in 2013, down 10.98%, up 2.15% but down 15.3% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”