Wheat Balance Sheet of Apri

By CnAgri2013-05-20 11:32:30 Print Flour production by medium and large mills was 1.717 million MT in April and 40.959 million MT in January ~ April, 8.1% and 8.02% more than the same period of last year respectively. These mills consumed about 14.48 million MT wheat in April and 55.35 million MT in January ~ April.
 
Deducting repetitive statistics, BOABC presumes that medium and large mills’ flour production and wheat consumption were about 6.192 million MT and 8.368 million MT respectively in April.
 
Small flourmills ran at 7.7% of their capacity and medium and large mills 45.7% in April.
 
Wheat consumption for various uses was estimated to be 9.184 million MT in April, resulting in an inventory of 79.266 million MT, suggesting a stock index of 5.3.
 
Wheat inventory in April consisted of 29.73 million MT state reserve, 12.55 million MT flourmills’ stock and 4.74 million MT on-farm stock.
 
Wheat production was estimated to be 120.5 million MT in 2012. Wheat imports were 3.284 million MT during May of 2012 ~ April of 2013. Flourmills consume about 105 million MT wheat in 2012/2013, slightly less than the previous year. Wheat consumption drops in 2012/2013. Wheat inventory is estimated to be 48.89 million MT at the end of 2012/2013, suggesting a safety index of 41.2%.
 
Wheat price was RMB2,417/MT in April and RMB2,263/MT during May of 2012 ~ April of 2013, up 12.62% and 8.16% respectively on the year-on-year basis, attributable to slim supply of high-quality wheat in the market.
 
In the 2013/2014 crop year, wheat acreage is predicted to be expand by a small margin and wheat production may exceed 121 million MT. Wheat import volume is predicted to stay high. Domestic wheat consumption is predicted to be 119 million MT, suggesting a moderate growth of year-end inventory and safety index. Wheat price is presumed to go up 7 ~ 8% in the year to a level of RMB2,429/MT.

From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”