China Rice Production and Paddy Balance Sheet in Nov. 2013

By CnAgri2013-12-30 09:44:15 Print Statistics Bureau: rice production increased both YOY and MOM in large scaled(Note: annual sales income registering over 20 million yuan. Hereinafter the same) rice mills in Nov..
　　
Rice production by medium and large mills registered 12.1692 million MT in Nov., calculated by historical data, it was 6.87% more than the month before and 11.3% more than the same period of last year. Rice production totaled 106.74 million MT in Jan. ~ Nov., an increase of 10.75% on the year-on-year basis. (Note: according to published data, the monthly growth rate was 4.60% and accumulative production, 104.4414 million MT, up 9.47% YOY). At the rice/paddy ratio of 68%, medium and large mills consumed 17.896million MT paddy in Nov. and 156.971 million MT in Jan. ~ Nov.
　　
Deducting repetitive statistics and taking into account of rice production by small mills, BOABC estimates that rice production and paddy consumption were about 12.305 million MT and 18.095 million MT respectively in Nov.
　　
In Nov., taking 30 days operation as full capacity, the average operating rate was 36.6%, of which, small mills ran at 12% operating rate with production of 1.6 million MT and medium and large mills 42.2% with production of 10.71 million MT. In 2012, taking 350 days operation as full capacity, the total capacity of processing paddy was 577 million MT as estimated by BOABC, of which, capacity of medium and large mills was 423 million MT and small mills 153 million MT.
　　
Paddy consumption for various uses was estimated to be 20.033 million MT in Nov. Harvested paddy registered 32.474 million MT, accounting for 15.8% of total paddy. Rice imports and exports were 180,500 MT and 50,700 MT respectively in Nov., equal to 266,000 MT paddy and 75,000 MT paddy respectively. Rice imports in Jan.-Nov. converted to paddy was 2.994 million MT and is estimated by BOABC to be 3.17 million MT in 2013, lower than last year’s 3.45 million MT.  
　　
Integrating harvest, consumption and imp.&Exp., paddy inventory was 206.5 million MT at the end of Nov., suggesting a monthly consumption index of 10.3, both above the same period of last year, attributable to increased rice imports.
　　
At the end of Nov., new paddy purchased by enterprises in major production areas registered 41.76 million MT, of which, 19.982 million MT was purchased by state-owned enterprises, 21.778 million MT by private enterprises. Paddy inventory in Nov. consisted of 56.97 million MT state reserve, 13.57 million MT rice mills’ stock, 12.1 million MT traders’ stock and 123.86 million MT farmers’ stock. 42.58% of farmers’ harvested paddy has been sold.
　　
Rice, keng rice, mid-late rice and early Indica rice prices were RMB2,801/MT, RMB3,055/MT RMB2,705/MT and RMB2,644/MT respectively in Nov., up 2.43%, 6.14%, 0.32% and 0.52% respectively on the year-on-year basis. The prices were RMB2,773/MT, RMB3,036/MT RMB2,641/MT and RMB2,641/MT respectively in July-Nov., up 2.43%, 6.14%, 0.32% and 0.52% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
　　
Indica rice price saw seasonal decline with new grain list. Keng rice inventory declined at the end of Nov. but price rose. With start of protective procurement price policy, price for mid-late rice shall increase.
　　
Planted paddy acreage and paddy production are about 30.73 million hectares and 205.2 million MT in 2013/2014, up 1.97% and 0.47% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Paddy consumption and year-end inventory are estimated to be 208 million MT and 88.726 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 42.85%. Influenced by price difference, rice imports still keep high.
　　
Though safety index increased significantly, annual prices for new crops increased to RMB2828/MT with growth rate of 3.5%, of which, prices for keng rice, mid-late rice and early indica rice were RMB2986/MT, RMB2756/MT and RMB2698 respectively, up 2.5%, 3.00% and 3.5% respectively.



From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”