Production Estimate by BOABC in 2013(2014.5)

By CnAgri2014-05-16 10:28:50 Print  According to BOABC’ monitoring, china grain comprehensive price index kept stable in April, increased slightly, year on year. Fertilizer price continued dropping. Deducting labor costs, farmers’ cash income is expected to remain the same, promoting grain production in New Year.
In addition, fertilizer price declined 7.33% on year-on-year basis from Sept. 2013 to March 2014. Specifically, decline rate of, producyion, urea, potassium chloride, NPK, calcium phosphate was 4.64%, 12.36%, 9.09%, 8.05% and 2.5% respectively. Price decline of fertilizer was harmful for lowering down grain production costs, which to some degree offset influences of rapid labor cost increase on grain production.
 
For different varieties: Monthly wholesale price for wheat was RMB2532/MT, down 1.11% MOM, up 2.56% YOY; In May-April, average price for wheat was RMB2495/MT, up 10.24%, YOY. In view of rapid growth of wheat price, wheat planting acreage and production shall be promoted. Monthly wholesale price for rice was RMB2827/MT, up 0.03% MOM, up 2.56% YOY; In June-April, average price for rice was RMB2789/MT, up 2.04%, YOY. The real increased was 4.14% deducting the currency's value. Monthly wholesale price for corn was RMB2350/MT, down 0.23% MOM, down 3.71% YOY; In Aug-April, average price for corn was RMB2362/MT, down 2.30%, YOY. The real decrease was 0.19% deducting the currency's value. The price decline restrained the development of corn sowing area. Monthly wholesale price for barley was RMB2065/MT, up 0.45% MOM, up 2.84% YOY; In June-April, average price for barley was RMB1958/MT, down 0.21%, YOY. The real increase was 1.93%; the price was basically stable. After the Spring Festival the price of barley had increased. The price of several of crops had actually increased, and price of fertilizer declined. Chinese grain market will kept increase.
 
On crops: Grain planting acreage is estimated at 113 million hectares in 2014, up 1.00% from 2013. Grain production is project at 616 million MT, up 2.59% YOY, increase for 11 consecutive years.  In 2013, wheat planting acreage is 24.342 million hectares, up 0.69% from last year. The unit yield register was 5131 kg/ha, up 3.29% and the total production was 125MT, up 4.00% YOY. Harvest acreage of winter wheat is 22.605 million hectares, up 0.30% YOY. The unit yield had obvious increased, it is predicted to increase 5231 kg/ha, by 3.61%, and the total production is 117.8MT, up 3.92%. On the spring wheat, it is predicted that the wheat price will have an obvious increase Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places. The total area is 1736 kg/ha, up 6.08% YOY， the unit yield is 4063 kg/ha, down 0.74% YOY, the total production is 7.057MT, up 5.29% YOY. Corn production: After new corn appeared on the market, the corn sales was hard, influenced by the condition, the sowing area is hard to increase. It is predicted that the corn sowing area is 36.711 million hectares, up 0.31% YOY， which is the lowest improvement range in the recent five years. The output decline in NE led to the overall decline in the country. The output and unit yield are predicted to 220MT, and 6002 kg/ha, up 2.60% and 2.28% respectively. Paddy production: It is predicted that paddy planting acreage is 30.690 million hectares in 2014, total production, 209 million MT and unit yield, 6809kg/hectare, up -0.13%, 2.26% and 2.40% respectively YOY. For paddy in different species: planting acreage for early rice had increased and the middle and late rice may decline. Planting acreage for single-crop rice is 5.841 million hectares and total production 34.86 million MT, up 0.84% and 2.31% respectively YOY; planting acreage for middle rice is 18.522 million hectares and total production 137 million MT, down 0.07% and increase2.65% respectively YOY. Planting acreage for late rice is 6.327 million hectares and total production 37.023 million MT, down 1.17% and increase0.81% respectively YOY.











From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”