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Along with Relatively Great Market Fluctuations, Soybean Meal Prices Would Maintain at a High Level Until 2019

China Agriculture Report By CnAgri2018-06-27 16:34:02China Agriculture Report Print If China imposes 25% taxes on importing soybean from the USA, soybean CIF prices will improve greatly. Judging from supply and demand, soybean meal would be in an abundant supply in the short term and the price growth would be limited, but the markets are more worried about continuity of future supply.
May soybean imports recorded 9.69 million MT, the second highest in a single month in history. The imports in the first five months totaled 36.17 million MT, only down 2.6% year on year. Based on prospects on shipping date, soybean arrival at the ports in June and July still would be upward of 9 million MT/month. Soybean meal would be in an abundant supply in the third quarter of 2018 and would see a tight supply in the fourth quarter.  
The proportion of soybean imports from the U.S. in total soybean imports reaches up to 40%. If the policy of increasing tariffs is carried out, soybean imports from the U.S. must reduce. However, soybean meal plays an important role in feed, even if soybean imports from Brazil can replace ones from the U.S., it must lead to an obvious rise of the premium for Brazilian soybean. What’s more, there will be phenomenon that the supply of soybean meal can’t be assured and an increase in soybean CIF costs will push up soybean meal prices. 
It was predicted that the situations of a tight supply and a high price would appear in the fourth quarter of 2018 and continue until 2019.
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