1、Analysis on China’s Grain Consumption and National Grain Inventory in March, 2014

By CnAgri2014-06-03 10:30:20 Print According to historical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, synthesizing wheat milling, rice milling, livestock product and feed output and industrial consumption, total consumption of grain kept stable in March, pork price declined greatly year on year. The growth of consumption brought about the decline of grain ration consumption. Annual grain consumption increased slightly, the growth rate of consumption is higher than supply growth rate. Safety factor rose up, which is favorable for stabilizing domestic price.
synthesizing rice and flour output and consumption, grain ration consumption was 24.94 million tons in March, up 2.99% year on year; among that, rural household consumption and urban household consumption respectively was 8.194 million tons and 7.058 million tons, the former down 1.67% year on year and the latter up 6.61% year on year; outside consumption of resident was 9.644 million tons, up 4.59% year on year.
Domestic pork price and poultry meat price dropped to some extent from March, which was favorable for the growth of meat consumption, but increasing vegetables and fruits price will restrain grain consumption growth, domestic grain consumption increased as a whole.
 
Feed Consumption: the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the production of pork, mutton, beef and poultry meat was 23.47 million tons in the first quarter, up 2.0% from last year, among which, pork production was 16.07 million tons, increasing 3.5%. The slaughter was 210.96 million pigs, up 3.1% year on year; the inventory was 448.50 million tons, down 2.06% year on year.
Synthesizing meat production, hog inventory and scale enterprises’ anticipation on feed production, feed consumption is predicted to be 19.972 million tons in March, down 3.94% year on year; deducting import soybean and other oil meal consumption, and actual feed consumption was 14.455 million tons, down 6.51% year on year.
From farming benefit, hog farming benefit declined obviously under the influence of decreasing hog price. In March, the price of hog was 11.19yuan/kg, down 12.70% year on year and 6.77% from last month. The chain index dropped greatly for four successive months; considering corn price kept high, the rate between hog price and
Corn price decreased sharply and was 4.69 in April, down 16.71% year on year, down 14.42% month on month. The rate between hog price and feed price was 3.38, down 13.10% year on year, while the rate between pork price and feed price was 6.00, down 10.57% year on year. The raising benefit of hog saw obvious decline, farming industry appeared deep loss, livestock inventory will drop obviously later, annual consumption of feed will be influenced. As for poultry, the rate between egg price and feed price and the rate between meat price and feed price respectively was 3.12 and 5.07, down by 4.17% and 3.29% respectively from last year, farming benefit dropped obviously.
Analysis on feed consumption later: monitoring data from MOA shows that the inventory of reproductive sow in March dropped 1.60% month on month and 5.10% year on year. According to historical data, reproductive sow inventory is predicted to be 47.38 million heads, down 5.86% year on year, decreasing for eight successive months. It’s predicted that animal husbandry inventory and livestock product output will see obvious decline, and feed consumption also will decrease to some extent. Output and net consumption of feed grain is predicted to drop obviously in 2014.
Liquor: The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the output of fermentation alcohol of scale enterprises was 0.9317 million kiloliter, up 4.18% year on year; according to historical data, it increased 0.26% year on year.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the output of white spirit was 1.908 million kiloliter, up 4.5% year on year; according to historical data, it decreased 10.42% year on year.
Calculated on a concentration of 65%, monthly ethyl alcohol production was 620,100 kiloliter. The direct fermentation proportion of white spirit is about 60%. Synthesizing white spirit and fermentation alcohol, total production of ethyl alcohol made from grain was 1.1496 million kiloliter. If 3.2 tons grains can produce 1 ton ethyl alcohol, white spirit consumed 2.9429 million tons grain, down 1.48%; considering beer consumed 547,000 tons grain, the monthly consumption of grain for liquor was 3.558 million tons, up 1.39% year on year; the accumulative consumption of grain for brewing liquor was 7.1162 million tons, down 2.10% year on year.
Grain deep processing: starch price was 2758yuan/MT in February, down 8.01% year on year; monthly average price of ethyl alcohol dropped to 5755yuan/MT, down 2.04% year on year. Grain alcohol production continued declining, but the import volume of potatoes ethyl alcohol increased continuously.
As for starch production, it was about 2.439 million tons in March; and declined to 2.2715 million tons in the last month, the consumption of grain was 3.6408 million tons, declined to 3.3903 million tons in the last month
Synthesizing various aspects mentioned above, industrial grain consumption in March was 7.384 million tons, up 6.38% year on year; a great amount of aging corn was out of the warehouse, imported corn and potatoes processing promoted the growth of deep processing consumption.
Synthesizing food consumption, feed consumption, industrial consumption, seed consumption and loss, the monthly consumption of grain in March was 49.521 million tons, month-end inventory of grain was 378 million tons, and monthly consumption factor at the end of March was 7.64, higher than that in last year.
Month-end inventory varieties structure: according to harvest and consumption, the month-end inventory of paddy, corn, wheat, barley and other grains in domestic is predicted to be 127 million tons, 150 million tons, 564530 million tons, 1.228 million tons and 41.747 million tons respectively.
Ownership composition and farmer’s selling schedule: from grain purchase, by the end of March, the total purchase volume of grain in main producing areas has reached 235 million tons. It’s predicted that the purchase volume of state owned enterprises is 148 million tons.
According to statistics of State Administration of Grain, the direct purchase volume of state owned enterprises was 14.639 million tons in February, and in terms of grain purchase volume, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia ranked top 4 with purchase volume of 4.349 million tons, 4.979 million tons, 1.751 million tons and 1.495 million tons; in February, state owned enterprises sold 12.098 million tons grains, and the sales volume of Henan, Jiangsu and Heilongjiang was greatest, respectively was 191,900 tons, 1.625 million tons and 0.926 million tons.
According to harvest yield, surplus in the last year and grain sales volume, the sales ratio of harvest grain in 2013/14 was 891.48%. The state launched collection and storage in NE timely, which speeded up farmers’ selling schedule. It’s should be noted that state owned enterprises became the main part of grain purchase in this year.
Security status in crop year: the sown area of grain crops in 2013/14 was 112 million hectares; the total production is predicted to be 600 million tons, increasing slightly from last year. Grain import increased to about 15 million tons, grain supply in domestic saw obvious growth, total consumption growth slowed down. Net consumption of feed grain increased, the growth rate of industrial consumption of grain slowed down, newly added supply passed total demand. End-stock and safety factory respectively was 259 million tons and 43.33%, increasing to some extent.
Grain output is hopeful to increase continuously in 2014/15 under the influence of planting structure adjustment. The sown area of commercial crops such as cotton and oil plants in inland is turned to grain production, which drives grain output growth, grain consumption also increased to some extent.










From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”