Live Hog Breeding Suffers Deep Loss in China

By CnAgri2014-03-28 09:33:40 Print

As BOABC’s estimate in China Livestock Market Review and Outlook in 2013/2014, “China live hog breeding may suffer deep loss in March and April in 2014 and sow capacity may be eliminated during this period”. Live hog price continued declining this week and straddling at unit price of 5 yuan. With such low price, loss of self-raised pig has theoretically exceeded RMB300/head, signifying China live hog breeding suffers deep loss. 

In fact, the loss may be more serious. According to BOABC’s research in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province, though temperature rising, disease of live hog still sees no improvement. Except piglet death due to nutrition and disease, medium pigs also have the phenomenon of death. Including the loss caused by disease into cost, the loss of live hog breeding has reached RMB400/MT in some areas. Recently, news of “ floating dead pig” is frequently noted in all areas, which to some extent verifies BOABC’s estimate and judgment on  pig disease. 

As for elimination of sow capacity, according to BOABC’s research, it is normally going on in most pig farms. Besides, piglet price rose bucking the trend, which further gains confidence of sow breeding farmers.

After observation of the first quarter, BOABC still holds ideas on pork price in 2014 as before: in Jan.-Feb. 2014, pork price went weak and live hog price continued declining. In Mar.-April, China live hog breeding may suffer deep loss in March and April in 2014 and sow capacity may be eliminated during this period. In May, pork price may see limited rebound. In June-Aug., live hog price continues declining and elimination of sow capacity will accelerate. If the elimination is in large scale, price for live hog and pork is expected to surge since Sept., otherwise, pork price will see limited rebound in the third and fourth quarter. BOABC is pessimistic about pork demand and elimination of sow capacity in 2014. Therefore, it is highly probable that pork price shall still in recession in 2014. 

From “China Livestock and Feed Market Weekly Report”