Overall Economic Development Enjoyed Momentum of Steady Growth in the First Three Quarters of 2013
By CnAgri
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National Bureau of Statistics of China
18 October 2013
In the first three quarters of 2013, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council committed to the general tone of making progress while ensuring the stability, stabilized the macro-economic policies, made innovation on the macro-control, deepened reform and opening-up, accelerated transformation and upgrading, and endeavored to improve people's livelihood. As a result, the overall national economy realized steady growth and enjoyed good momentum.
According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first three quarters of this year was 38,676.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7 percent calculated at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth was 7.7 percent for the first quarter, 7.5 percent for the second quarter and 7.8 percent for the third quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 3,566.9 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent; that of the secondary industry was 17,511.8 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 17,597.5 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent. The gross domestic product of the third quarter of 2013 went up by 2.2 percent on a quarterly basis.
1. Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum and Autumn Grain is Expected to Get Another Harvest.
The total output of summer grain was 131.89 million tons, an increase of 1.96 million tons, up by 1.5 percent year-on-year. The output of early rice was 34.07 million tons, an increase of 783 thousand tons, up by 2.4 percent. The autumn grain production is expected to get a good harvest again. In the first three quarters of 2013, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 58.03 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 1.3 percent. The output of pork reached 38.31 million tons, up by 2.1 percent. The number of pigs in stock was 475.41 million, up by 1.5 percent, while the number of slaughtered pigs was 502.59 million, an increase of 1.9 percent.
2. The Growth of Industrial Production Grew Steadily and Moderately with Constant Increase in Enterprises Profits.
In the first three quarters, the total value added (calculated at comparable price) of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 9.6 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage point compared with that in the first half of this year. An analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 6.3 percent; collective enterprises 4.5 percent; share-holding enterprises 11.0 percent; and 7.9 percent growth for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan provinces. The growth for mining industry was up by 6.7 percent year-on-year; manufacturing up by 10.3 percent; and the production and supply of electricity, gas and water up by 6.8 percent. All the 41 industrial divisions registered year-on-year growth. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions was 8.9 percent, 10.5 percent and 11.0 percent respectively. Out of the 464 kinds of industrial products, 338 of them registered year-on-year increase in output. Of this total, electricity went up by 6.8 percent, crude steel up by 8.0 percent, rolled steel up by 11.7 percent, cement up by 8.9 percent, plain glass up by 11.3 percent, ten kinds of nonferrous metals up by 9.8 percent, coke up by 8.2 percent, sulfuric acid (converted into 100 percent) up by 4.8 percent, caustic soda (converted into 100 percent) up by 4.4 percent, chemical fiber up by 7.5 percent, ethylene up by 6.4 percent, and micro computer equipment up by 8.4 percent. The output of integrated circuits was up by 9.3 percent, and motor vehicles up by 15.3 percent with the output of cars grew by 14.5 percent. In the first three quarters, the sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.7 percent, or 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. The export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 8,214.8 billion yuan, up by 4.5 percent year-on-year. In September, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 10.2 percent year-on-year, or 0.72 percent month-on-month.
In the first eight months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 3,486.4 billion yuan, up by 12.8 percent year-on-year, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared with that in the first half of the year. Of this total, the profit from primary activities was 3,580.1 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent. Among the 41 industrial divisions, 25 divisions registered year-on-year increase in profits from primary activities, 14 divisions witnessed reduction, one division turned into profits from losses, and one division had less losses. In the first eight months, the costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 85.9 yuan. The profit rates of industrial enterprise above designated size from all activities and their primary activities are 5.4 percent and 5.6 percent respectively.
3. Investment in Fixed Assets Enjoyed Relatively Fast Growth while Growth Rate of Investment in Real Estate Declined Slightly.
In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 30,920.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 20.2 percent (a real growth of 20.2 percent after deducting price factors), which was 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. Of this total, that in the state-owned and state holding enterprises reached 9,900.1 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6 percent; and private investment reached 19,661.1 billion yuan, up by 23.3 percent. In term of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions was 18.8 percent, 23.4 percent and 23.0 percent respectively. The investment in the primary industry reached 679.9 billion yuan, up by 31.1 percent year-on-year; that in the secondary industry was 13,260.7 billion yuan, up by 17.1 percent; and that in the tertiary industry was 16,980.2 billion yuan, up by 22.3 percent. Of the investment in the secondary industry, that in industry reached 13,038.6 billion yuan, up by 17.7 percent. Of this total, the investment in mining was 983.5 billion yuan, up by 11.1 percent; manufacturing 10,677.3 billion yuan, up by 18.5 percent; and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water 1,377.8 billion yuan, up by 17.0 percent. The investment in infrastructural facilities (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) was 4,840.3 billion yuan, up by 25.1 percent year-on-year. The funds in place for investment in the first three quarters were 34,854.0 billion yuan, up by 20.4 percent. Specifically, the government budgetary funds went up by 16.6 percent, domestic loans up by 16.6 percent, self-raising funds up by 20.1 percent, and foreign investment down by 8.5 percent. The total planned investment in newly-started projects was 26,549.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3 percent. The number of projects started in the first three quarters was 301,504, an increase of 25,228 year-on-year. In September, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) went up by 1.28 percent month-on-month.
In the first three quarters, the total investment in real estate development was 6,112.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.7 percent (a real growth of 19.7 percent after deducting price factors), which was 0.6 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year. Of this total, the investment in residential buildings went up by 19.5 percent, or 1.3 percentage points lower than that in the first half. Floor space of houses newly started in the first three quarters was 1,449.00 million square meters, up by 7.3 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings started in the first three quarters increased by 6.4 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 843.83 million square meters, up by 23.3 percent, or 5.4 percentage points lower than that in the first half. Of this total, that of residential buildings went up by 23.9 percent. The sales of commercial buildings in the first three quarters were 5,402.8 billion yuan, up by 33.9 percent, or 9.3 percentage points lower than that in the first half. Of this total, that of residential buildings was up by 34.5 percent. In the first three quarters, the land space purchased by real estate development enterprises was 251.67 million square meters, down by 3.3 percent, the decline of which was narrowed by 7.1 percentage points as compared with that in the first half of the year. At the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 446.36 million square meters, up by 36.6 percent, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than that at the end of June. In the first three quarters, the actual funds for real estate development enterprises reached 8,782.8 billion yuan, up by 28.7 percent, or 3.4 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the growth of domestic loans was up by 32.3 percent, self-raising funds up by 18.4 percent and foreign investment up by 23.4 percent.
4. Market Sales Kept Steady Growth with the Growth Rate in Rural Areas Faster than that in Urban Areas.
In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,881.7 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9 percent (a real growth of 11.3 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size stood at 8,457.1 billion yuan, up by 11.0 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 14,579.9 billion yuan, up by 12.7 percent, and that in rural areas stood at 2,301.8 billion yuan, up by 14.5 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the total income of catering industry was 1,817.8 billion yuan, up by 8.9 percent year-on-year, or 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the first half; and retail sales of goods was 15,063.9 billion yuan, up by 13.4 percent, or 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. In particular, the retail sales of enterprises (units) above designated size reached 7,872.9 billion yuan, up by 12.1 percent. Specifically, the sales of motor vehicles rose by 9.3 percent; household appliances and audio-video equipments went up by 14.7 percent; and furniture grew by 20.6 percent. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 13.3 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 11.2 percent after deducting price factors), and the month-on-month growth was1.24 percent.
5. The Growth Rates of Exports Declined while that of Imports Accelerated Slightly.
The total value of imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2013 was 3,060.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year growth of 7.7 percent, which was 0.9 percentage point lower than that in the first half. The total value of exports was 1,614.9 billion US dollars, up by 8.0 percent, or a drop of 2.4 percentage points; and that of imports was 1,445.5 billion US dollars, up by 7.3 percent, or 0.6 percentage point higher. The trade surplus was 169.4 billion US dollars. Of the total value of imports and exports, that from general trade was 1,616.2 billion US dollars, up by 7.8 percent; and that from processing trade was 989.4 billion US dollars, up by 0.7 percent. Among the value of exports, that from general trade was 794.5 billion US dollars, up by 8.9 percent; and that from processing trade was 625.0 billion US dollars, down by 0.9 percent. Among the value of imports, that from general trade was 821.7 billion US dollars, up by 6.8 percent; and that from processing trade was 364.4 billion US dollars, up by 3.6 percent. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 356.1 billion US dollars, up by 3.3 percent year-on-year. Of this total, the total value of exports was 185.6 billion US dollars, down by 0.3 percent; and that of imports was 170.4 billion US dollars, up by 7.4 percent.
6. The Growth of Consumer Price was Generally Stable while the Decline of Producer Price Narrowed Down.
In the first three quarters, the consumer price went up by 2.5 percent year-on-year, or 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the price went up by 2.5 percent in urban areas and 2.7 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food rose by 4.4 percent; tobacco, liquor and articles rose by 0.6 percent; clothing up by 2.3 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.5 percent; health care and personal articles grew by 1.5 percent; transportation and communication down by 0.4 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services grew by 1.4 percent; and housing went up by 2.8 percent. In terms of food prices, that for grain grew up by 4.9 percent, oil or fat up by 1.7 percent, pork down by 0.9 percent and fresh vegetables up by 5.2 percent. In September, the growth of consumer prices was 3.1 percent year-on-year, or 0.8 percent month-on-month. In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 2.1 percent, the decline of which was 0.1 percentage point less than that in the first half of the year. In September, the price dropped by 1.3 percent year-on-year or grew by 0.2 percent month-on-month. In the first three quarters, the purchasing price for industrial producers was down by 2.2 percent year-on-year. In September, the price was down by 1.6 percent year-on-year or up by 0.2 percent month-on-month.
7. Urban and Rural Residents’ Income Continued to Rise with a Higher Growth for Rural Residents.
In the first three quarters, the per capita total income of urban households was 22,068 yuan. Specifically, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 20,169 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.5 percent, or a real growth of 6.8 percent after deducting price factors. Of the per capita total income of urban households, the year-on-year growth of wage income was 8.9 percent; net income from business operation 9.9 percent; property income 13.0 percent and 9.8 percent from transferred income. The per capita cash income of rural households was 7,627 yuan, up by 12.5 percent year-on-year, or 9.6 percent in real terms. Specifically, the nominal year-on-year growth of wage income was 17.1 percent; household operation income 8.0 percent; property income 23.2 percent; and 17.4 percent from transferred income. In the first three quarters, the median of per capita disposable income of urban households was 17,925 yuan, up by 9.6 percent year-on-year; the median of per capita cash income of rural households was 6,554 yuan, up by 13.2 percent. The number of rural migrant workers at the end of the third quarter was 173.92 million, which was 5.25 million more than that in the same period of last year, or up by 3.1 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 2,542 yuan, up by 13.0 percent year-on-year.
8. Money Supply Enjoyed Relatively High Growth with More Newly Increased Loans Year-on-year.
By the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 107.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.2 percent, or 0.5 percentage point lower than that at the end of the previous month; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 31.23 trillion yuan, up by 8.9 percent, or 1.0 percentage point lower on a monthly basis; the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 5.65 trillion yuan, up by 5.7 percent, a drop of 3.6 percentage points compared with that in the previous month. The amount of outstanding loans of all financial institutions at the end of September was 70.28 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 103.09 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters, the newly increased loans reached 7.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 557.0 billion yuan; the newly increased deposits were 11.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.23 trillion yuan year-on-year.
As a whole, in the first three quarters of 2013, the overall national economy realized steady growth and enjoyed good momentum. The major indicators stayed within the rational range, which was in favor of promoting economic restructuring and pushing forward reforms. In the next phase, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements made by the central government, we should adhere to the main theme of scientific development and the mainline of transforming economic development mode, make more efforts to promote reform and opening-up, adjust economic structure and change development mode, further boost market vitality and internal vigor for long-term growth, so as to promote a sustainable and sound development of national economy for an upgraded version.
Notes:
1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.
2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, quarterly GDP of 2012, and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods from September 2012 to September 2013 have been revised. The revised figures and figures for September as well as GDP of the third quarter of 2013 are as follows:
The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in each quarter of 2012 and in the first three quarters of 2013 was 1.4 percent, 2.2 percent, 2.0 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.9 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.
Month-on-Month Changes | |||
Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size (%) | Investment in Fixed Assets (Excluding Rural Households) (%) | Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (%) | |
2012 September | 0.89 | 1.99 | 1.32 |
October | 0.79 | 1.56 | 1.16 |
November | 0.82 | 1.52 | 1.21 |
December | 0.84 | 1.59 | 1.25 |
2013 January | 0.62 | 1.81 | 0.19 |
February | 0.83 | 1.57 | 0.97 |
March | 0.71 | 1.64 | 1.30 |
April | 0.93 |
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