Business Climate Index Increased in the Third Quarter of 2013

By CnAgri Print

National Business Climate Survey results showed that the business climate index (BCI) was 121.5 in the third quarter of 2013, increased 0.9 points quarter-on-quarter, and enterprises were still running in the prosperity interval. Of which, the current BCI that reflected the current state of business climate was 117.9, the expected BCI that reflected the anticipation of future business climate was 123.9, both went up by 0.9 points quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter, the entrepreneur expectation index (ECI) was 119.5, up by 2.5 points quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of enterprises profit level, 75.3 percent of enterprises showed that the profit status in third quarter was at a "normal" or "better than normal" level, increased 1.5 percentage points over that in the second quarter. 

In terms of inventory status of industrial enterprises, 85.5 percent of enterprises showed that the inventory in third quarter was at a "normal" level, 0.8 percentage point higher than that in the second quarter; 5.8 percent of enterprises showed that the inventory in third quarter was "below the normal level", 0.4 percentage point higher; while 8.7 percent of enterprises showed that the inventory in third quarter was "above the normal level", 1.2 percentage points lower.

In terms of order status of industrial enterprises, 80.7 percent of enterprises showed that the order status in third quarter was at a "normal" or "better than normal" level, increased 2.0 percentage points over that in the second quarter. 

Survey results showed that the current business climate was in a situation of moderate rise.

In terms of different industries, the rank of BCIs followed by the information transmission, software and IT services industry, industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, real estate, transportation, storage and postal industry, social services, accommodation and restaurants was 137.8, 126.6, 125.5, 123.9, 115.7, 110.0, 110.4, 88.3 respectively. Except for accommodation and restaurants, the BCIs of other industries were all above the critical value.

In terms of sub-branches of the industry, the BCIs of production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water, manufacturing, and mining and quarrying was 137.9, 128.2 and 94.0 points, respectively. Of which, the industries with high prosperity from high to low in descending order were tobacco, pharmaceutical, food, the BCIs were above 140. The industry with low prosperity was steel and petroleum, the BCI were just above 100.

In terms of the sizes of enterprises, the BCIs of large, medium and small-sized enterprises were 135.6, 123.7 and 110.4, respectively, and went up by 1.8, 1.4 and 0.3 points quarter-on-quarter, respectively.

In terms of different regions, the BCIs of eastern, central and western regions stood at 122.4, 123.1 and 116.3 respectively, and went up by 0.9, 1.0 and 0.9 point quarter-on-quarter, respectively.

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

The business climate index is comprehensively reflects the economic situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the business situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of BCI is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the business climate state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the business climate is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.

2. Statistical Coverage

The survey covers eight sectors: industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage and postal services, hotel and catering industry, information transmission, software and IT services, real estate, and social services. Each industry is according to the scale of the proportion of a sample.

3. Survey Methods

Samples were selected by adopting the sampling methods of stratified, probability proportional to size (PPS). The national total sample size were 21,000 enterprises.

4. Survey Contents

Survey involved in the business running, enterprises operation, profitability, employment, investment, financing, inventory and other production and management problems.

5. Calculation Methods

The business climate index = 0.4×Current BCI +0.6×Expected BCI

Current BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the current quarter - poor proportion of +100

Expected BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the next quarter - poor proportion of +100

6. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions

Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.