Estimates of China Grain Production in 2013 ~ 2014 by BOABC

By CnAgri2013-10-28 13:33:41 Print

While grain price has been going north, fertilizer price has kept falling this year. This, plus the government’s cash subsidy to farmers, gives farmers initiatives in grain production.
 
China’s composite grain price index was RMB2,573/MT in Sept., up 0.37% over the month before and up 5.92% on the year-on-year basis, adjusted for currency value change. From Oct. of 2012 to Sept. of 2013, urea, potassium chloride and NPK price dropped 4.16%, 3.89% and 2.48% respectively.
 
The wholesale prices of wheat, paddy, corn and barley were RMB2,476/MT, RMB2,772/MT, RMB2,412/MT and RMB1,877/MT respectively in Sept., up 17.6%, 3.97%, 1.63% and 2.91% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
BOABC estimates that planted grain acreage and grain production may be 111.698 million hectares and 593 million MT in 2013, more than last year by 0.39% and 0.59% respectively. China’s rapid urbanization has led to a substantial decrease of farmland.
 
Winter wheat acreage, yield and production are estimated to be 22.648 million hectares, 4,881kg/hectare and 111 million MT respectively this year, down 0.01%, 2.7% and 2.68% respectively from last year.
 
Spring wheat acreage, yield and production are estimated to be 1.591 million hectares, 4,182kg/hectare and 6.656 million MT respectively, down 7.09%, up 6.66% but down 0.96% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Of the total wheat production, 69.042 million MT are high-quality wheat, a decrease of 15.19% on the year-on-year basis, attributable to adverse weather.
 
Winter wheat acreage and production are predicted to be 22.757 million hectares and 116 million MT in 2013/2014. Spring wheat acreage and production are predicted to be 1.683 million hectares and 7.135 million MT in 2013/2014, up 5.72% and 7.2% respectively on the year-on-year basis. High-quality wheat production is predicted to be 84.84 million MT, an increase of 23% on the year-on-year basis.
 
Harvested corn acreage and corn production are about 36.587 million hectares and 215 million MT this year, up 3.87% and 3.32% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Specifically, spring-planted corn acreage and production are 24.497 million hectares and 145 million MT, up 4.59% and 4.04% respectively on the year-on-year basis; Summer-planted corn acreage and production are 12.09 million hectares and 69.17 million MT, up 2.43% and 1.86% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
Planted paddy acreage and paddy production are estimated to be 30.696 million hectares and 206 million MT this year, 1.58% and 0.58% more than last year respectively.
 
Specifically, early paddy acreage and production are 5.792 million hectares and 34.074 million MT, up 1% and 2.91% respectively on the year-on-year basis; Single-cropping paddy acreage and production are 18.623 million hectares and 135 million MT, up 2.06% and 0.39% respectively on the year-on-year basis; Semilate paddy acreage and production are 6.281 million hectares and 36.719 million MT, up 0.68% but down 0.82% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
 
In terms of variety, Japonica acreage and production are predicted to be 10.315 million hectares and 71.99 million MT and Indica acreage and production 20.381 million hectares and 134 million MT respectively.
 
Due to falling returns, barley acreage and production are predicted to drop to 600,000 hectares and 1.912 million MT respectively.



From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”