Wheat Balance Sheet in February

By CnAgri2013-03-25 10:24:25 Print Flour production by medium and large mills registered 8.904 million MT in February, 12.9% less than the month before and 5.45% less than the same period of last year. Flour production totaled 19.121 million MT in January ~ February, an increase of 8.03% on the year-on-year basis.
 
The promulgated figures showed a production decrease of 4.9% in February but an increase of 8.8% in January ~ February, both on the year-on-year basis.
 
Wheat consumption by medium and large mills was about 12.032 million MT in February and 25.839 million MT in January ~ February.
 
Deducting repetitive statistics, BOABC estimates that flour production and wheat consumption by medium and large mills in February were about 5.503 million MT and 7.436 million MT respectively.
 
Small flourmills ran at 27.4% of their capacity and medium and large mills at 57.5% in February.
 
Wheat consumption for various uses was estimated to be 8.485 million MT in February. Wheat inventory was 64.218 million MT at the end of February, suggesting a stock index of 7.6.
 
The February inventory consisted of 21.37 million MT state reserve, 16.69 million MT short-term state reserve, 11.15 million MT flourmills’ stock and 12.4 million MT on-farm stock. Farmers sold 89.71% of their wheat by February, parallel to the same period of last year.
 
1.951 million MT wheat procured at the protective price was sold by auction in February. Wheat imports recorded 2.597 million MT between May of 2012 and February of 2013.
 
Wheat production, imports and consumption are estimated to be 120.5 million MT, 3.003 million MT and 125 million MT respectively in 2012/2013. Year-end wheat stock is predicted to be 42.563 million MT, suggesting a safety index of 34.21%.
 
Wheat price averaged RMB2,386/MT in February and RMB2,234/MT between May of 2012 and February of 2013, up 13.39% and 7.27% respectively on the year-on-year basis. The state-run grain system’s tight supply of flour-use wheat was to blame for the wheat price hike. Wheat price is predicted to be RMB2,260/MT in 2012/2013 on average.
 
In the 2013/2014 crop year, wheat acreage is expected to grow by a small margin and production may reach 121 million MT. Wheat price is predicted to go rise 7 ~ 8% to a level of RMB2,429/MT.

       

From “China Grains Market Weekly Report”