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China-U.S. Soybean Trade War Would Make a Turnaround for Demand of Rapeseed Meal

China Agriculture Report By CnAgri2018-04-08 15:24:13China Agriculture Report Print It is off season of consumption, but, stimulated by China-U.S. trade war, domestic soybean prices ascend. Of which soybean meal prices at the end of March reached RMB 3,253/MT, nearly RMB 70/MT higher than middle March. For that reason, rapeseed meal market is also boosted, and besides there are relatively more feel-good factors, so rapeseed meal prices would go up.
First, influenced by relatively low planting margins, a low degree of mechanization and a fall in rural labor force, oil-seed areas in traditional producing regions were replaced or set aside, and rapeseed output in 2017/18 was estimated to go down to 5 million MT. Along with the rising of small workshops and poor quality and decentralized distribution, the supply descended sharply.      
Second, along with the increasing of temperature, aquaculture is gradually marching into north from south. Owing to a great growth in aquatic product prices and relatively good margins of aquaculture, the demand for feed ascends obviously and the demand for rapeseed meal is gradually becoming strong. 
Third, soybean meal is the biggest substitute of rapeseed meal, but, influenced by an increase in soybean meal prices, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was upward of RMB 900/MT at the end of March. Along with the weakening substitution effect of soybean meal, the demand for rapeseed meal from feed mills ascended. 

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