China’s Soybean Import Volume Reached 93.5 Million Tons in 2016/17, the Import Growth Might Slow Down in the Future

By CnAgri2017-11-02 10:41:55 Print China’s soybean import volume had reached 93.5 million tons in 2016/17, up 10.27 million tons from last year and the growth was 12%. It reached another historical high. Totally the soybeans China imported from Brazil had reached 45.34 million tons in 2016/17, which was 45% of the total import volume; the import volume from America was 36.84 million tons, which was 39% of the total volume. At present, the American soybean harvest is coming to an end and large volumes of soybeans are being launched in the market. These soybeans will be China’s main soybean import source in late period.   
The growth of China’s soybean import volume surpassed the expectation in recent years mainly due to the sharp growth of the demands for soybean meal. First of all, due to the continued increase of large scale livestock farming and concentration ratio, the proportion of industrial feed increased significantly and the overall demands for protein meal increased sharply; Secondly, as the supplies of domestic miscellaneous meals such as rapeseed meal, cotton seed meal and DDGS continued to drop, the substitutive demand of soybean meal increased.
 
The imported soybean volume was foreseen to increase to about 95 million tons and the growth would remain limited due to the following:
First of all, the industrial feed proportion has reached about 90%;
Secondly, the substitutive demand of soybean meal for miscellaneous meals is approaching the limit;
Thirdly, as China’s livestock and poultry consumption has reached a high level, the future development would turn to structural adjustment; for example, the demand ratio for high-end products would increase.
 
Therefore, we believe that a period of slow growth would be found in the demands for soybean meal. The soybean import growth would also slow down gradually in later period.