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Overall Vegetable Oil Supply Grows Sharply, Price Lacks in Strength in the Fourth Quarter

China Agriculture Report By CnAgri2017-11-02 10:42:19China Agriculture Report Print In September, 2017, China’s vegetable oil import volume (including imported oilseeds equivalent to oil) was about 2.34 million tons, up 140,000 tons from last month. Up 21% year on year. The volume of imported palm oil reached 690,000 tons, up 270,000 tons from last month, up 43% year on year. It was the highest level found in recent two years. Therefore, the total imported vegetable oil volume (including imported oilseeds equivalent to oil) during the first three quarters had reached about 19.06 million tons, up 17% year on year.
Although the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season in vegetable oil consumption, but due to the relatively abundant supply, we believe that the vegetable oil price growth lacks in strength in the fourth quarter; soybean oil and palm oil supply exceeds demand for a long time; the rapeseed oil price is more likely to rise due to the support of tight balance between supply and demand.
More than 24 million tons of imported soybeans are expected to arrive in port, 22.05 million tons more than the same period last year (equivalent to more than 4.8 million tons of soybean oil); major producers’ palm oil is still increasing and the inventories of China’s main ports range from 450,000 to 500,000 tons for a long time and consumer demand continues to fall; domestic rapeseed output has dropped sharply, bad weather may affect Canada’s rapeseed production, global and China’s rapeseed oil supply tight balance pattern will continue for a longer period.
But along with the increasing consumption level and festival consumption, in the fourth quarter the small variety high-end vegetable oil consumption demand will increase significantly which will become the main field of the industry profit growth.
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